Why we believe guesses and rumors more than statistics

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Science explains why we are still afraid to fly airplanes, we refuse vaccinations and are not good at understanding people.

You got the seasonal flu shot and are sick. And an acquaintance also complained of poor health. You know that, statistically Influenza Vaccines. WHO position paper, influenza vaccination can reduce the risk of illness by 70–90% and save hundreds of thousands of lives. But now you don't really trust her.

But you see a man in the parking lot. He is dressed in all black, he has a lot of tattoos, and hard rock is heard from his headphones. Do you think he came by bike or by car? Most likely, you will choose the first option without hesitation. Although, in fact, the probability of the second is higher, because there are much more cars on the roads. Or maybe he's a cyclist.

In both cases, it's a matter of base percentage error - a cognitive bias that all people are subject to.

What is the essence of this cognitive bias

Due to the error of the base percentage, we tend to ignore statistics and general data. Instead, we rely on personal experience and special cases that we meet in our environment.

This phenomenon was first described by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 90s of the twentieth century. They conducted a study, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, in which participants were briefly described one person: he loves puzzles, he has a mathematical mindset, and he is an introvert.

The participants were then divided into two groups: one was told that this person had been selected from among 70 engineers and 30 lawyers. Another group was told the opposite: the sample included 30 engineers and 70 lawyers. The question was the same for everyone: what is the probability that this person is an engineer?

Many of those interviewed agreed that such a small description is not enough to define the hero's profession. But most were still inclined to believe that he was an engineer.

The survey was conducted in a different way: now the participants were not initially provided with any information about the person. Then their answers were based on the general probability: if there are more engineers in the group, then the likelihood that the hero is also an engineer is greater. And if there are more lawyers in the group, then, most likely, he is a lawyer. From this we can conclude that when we do not have specific information, there is nothing to confuse us with.

Why we don't always trust statistics

In a specific case, The Base Rate Fallacy in Probability Judgments seems to us that the general data are not reliable enough: they cannot take into account all the factors that affect our situation right now. Moreover, they do not correspond to the judgment that we have already made.

Scientists associate On the psychology of prediction this thinking error with the representativeness heuristic - a person's ability to draw conclusions based on stereotypes and personal assessment.

Other cognitive biases make the situation worse.

This is a tendency towards negativity, in which a person perceives and remembers bad news better, and a confirmation bias, when he chooses the information that corresponds to his already existing opinion.

What harm can this cognitive distortion do?

You misjudge people

It would seem that there is nothing wrong with making a mistake with a person's profession or personal qualities. But if you think about it, the consequences can be very different: you were not able to recognize a fraudster, you were involved in a bad company, you missed an important acquaintance for your career or a valuable employee for the company.

For example, in one experiment, On the psychology of prediction, participants were asked to rate the GPA of hypothetical students. To do this, they were given statistics on the distribution of ratings. But the participants ignored it if they were given a descriptive characterization of the students. At the same time, the latter could have absolutely nothing to do with studies and academic performance.

This is how researchers proved that university interviews are useless.

This experiment demonstrates that we can not always judge people so accurately that we are guided only by our experience.

Anxiety level rises

Underestimating statistical information can make a person overly suspicious. The fear of flying on an airplane or the horror of the obsessive thought that a bomb will be on the bus or the driver will fall asleep at the wheel can seriously affect the psyche. It makes you suffer from anxiety and stress. And the constant fear that you will catch a rare and terrible disease can lead to hypochondria.

You make mistakes in important situations

You want to give away your savings at a high interest rate and go to a young, little-known bank. You know that they are often unreliable and it is safer to go to a large organization that offers less pleasant conditions. But in the end, you trust a friend who keeps money in the same bank more and good reviews on the Internet.

And sometimes an error in the base percentage can cost health and even life.

Take the flu shot: you refuse to do it again because it didn't work for you the last time. As a result, it turns out that you get sick and get serious complications.

Or, let's say you are a doctor. A patient comes to you, after examining him, you see the symptoms of a terrible and rare disease. It may seem that everything is obvious. But the very fact that the disease is rare should make you re-check the diagnosis. And if you don't, you can prescribe the wrong treatment and harm the patient.

How to deal with the base percentage error

Don't jump to conclusions

If you have been able to rate something without much thought, stop and think. Most often, this is a reason to rethink a phenomenon or situation again. The world is not so simple to draw conclusions on the basis of 2-3 obvious at first glance criteria.

Avoid being categorical

If you've already come to a conclusion, don't stop there - be flexible. It is possible that the input data has changed or you did not take into account something, or there is new significant information.

Collect more data

On the one hand, it seems reasonable to draw conclusions based on specific data that are specific to your situation. But on the other hand, you can only get a complete picture if you have as much information as possible. So seek and use it.

Filter information

To give an accurate estimate of something, you need not only complete data, but reliable data as well. Be wary of the news outlets and television - often the facts are presented selectively, and attention is focused on one thing.

As a result, the general picture is disturbed and you perceive information too emotionally.

Therefore, only trust official statistics, scientific research and evidence-based data.

Broaden your horizons

Constantly study and be interested in what is happening around you. Try to learn new things from different areas. The more information you have, the less guesswork you will have to draw conclusions. You will already have the official figures and exact facts in your hands.