Thinking trap: why we are afraid of terrorist attacks, but cross the road at a red light

We remember some facts better than others

You have heard about the terrorist attack that took the lives of many people. The tragedy was told on all channels, wrote in all publications, mentioning previous similar cases. Now it seems to you that a terrorist attack can occur in your city at any moment.

You avoid crowded places and venture out into the streets with caution. But at the same time, you continue to cross the road at a red light, forgetting that the probability of being hit by a car is incomparably higher.

Or another example. You have read an article about people who won the lottery. One day they just bought a ticket and got lucky. You begin to think that your chances of winning a prize are high enough.

At the same time, you forget that millions of other people participating in the lottery did not receive anything. Similar distortions in thinking are common.

Piled up memories lead to thinking errors

This error is called the availability heuristic. It is an intuitive process in which a person judges the frequency or possibility of an event by how easily examples of similar events are remembered. We use it when we need to make a decision or evaluate an idea.

The term "accessibility heuristic" was coined by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1973. This process occurs unconsciously, and it is based on the principle "If you have thought about it, then it is important." What easily comes to mind seems to be more common and reliable than it really is.

The problem is that some events are better remembered than others.

Sometimes an incident is imprinted in memory due to novelty or related experiences. Unusual incidents such as a terrorist attack or a shark attack on a person seem more important to us. Therefore, there is a false impression that they are very common.

Sometimes this is due to widespread press coverage. For example, we hear news of plane crashes and are afraid to fly an airplane, although car accidents are much more common.

Researchers described a similar situation with advertising for depression drugs. Survey participants who heard more about antidepressants remembered more drugs. And they thought that depression among the population is common.

Other scientists have proven that people use the availability heuristic even when judging a store's pricing policy. The more they think of inexpensive items in it, the higher they rate the store as a whole.

But cognitive distortion can be avoided

Don't rely on memories: they are not the best counselor. Trust only the facts. Look for confirmed data, study statistics. Try to remember the opposite examples, and then make a decision. In other words, before buying a lottery ticket, consider what the real odds of winning are.

If you are developing a product, do not limit yourself to competing research. Let's say companies X and Y use the same method, but that doesn't mean it will help you. Make decisions based on the needs of your own customers. Conduct A / B testing, collect data, get user feedback.

Try not to forget that the brain relies on the memories available to it, and study the issue from all sides. This is the only way to make an objective decision.