“I knew that it would be so!”: Why we believe that we foresaw the outcome of events

Let's say you want to ask someone you like out on a date. If he refuses, you will exclaim: “I knew it! After all, it is obvious that he is too good for me. " And if you agree, say: “I knew it! After all, he clearly likes me. " What has already happened always seems obvious and predictable. And this is the work of retrospective distortion.

New information distorts our memories

The result of an event is impossible to predict. We can only speculate. But after that, when all the information is in our hands, it seems to us that we foresaw the outcome of the case. The original opinion is distorted by a fait accompli. We begin to believe that we thought so from the very beginning. This is a retrospective distortion, or a hindsight error. From English hindsight is a hindsight judgment. …

The brain is constantly updating the data we have. This protects against memory overload and helps to draw relevant conclusions. Hindsight error is a side effect of this process.

People noticed it a long time ago, but only studied it thoroughly in the mid-1970s. For this, a whole series of experiments was carried out. So, in one of them, the participants assessed the likelihood of events that could occur after the visit of the American president to Beijing and Moscow. Upon his return, they were asked to recall what they thought was most likely at the first interview.

And the participants chose the options that actually happened - even if they were assessed differently before the president's trip.

At the heart of this thinking error are three effects that interact with each other:

Distorted memories("I said that it will be so"). Our memories are not static. Seeing a fait accompli, we begin to think that we really leaned towards it.
The effect of inevitability("It had to happen"). We are trying to comprehend what happened, based on the information that we now have. And we conclude: since the event happened, it means that it was inevitable.
Predictability effect(“I knew from the beginning that this would happen”). Since an event is so "inevitable," then it is easy to foresee. We begin to believe that we did it.

For example, you watched a movie and found out who the killer was. You look back: you remember the plot twists and turns of the characters who hinted at such an ending. It doesn't matter what impression you got while watching - now it seems to you that you understood everything from the very beginning. And it's not just films.

And it can be dangerous

You cannot foresee the future. But after a series of successful coincidences, you can believe that you can do it. If your assumptions come true, self-confidence increases. And it quickly turns into overconfidence. Of course, since you predicted past events, then you can also predict future ones. Now you rely too much on your intuition and take unnecessary risks.

And it's good if they only affect you. But if you are a judge or a doctor, your mistakes can affect other people. For example, retrospective misstatement has already been shown to affect decisions in the legal system.

It also prevents us from learning from our mistakes. If you think you knew the outcome of the case from the very beginning, you will not think about the real reasons for what happened.

“It was inevitable,” you say to hide the truth from yourself: you could have done something differently.

For example, you come to an interview for which you have not prepared in advance. You are bad at answering questions, and the job goes to someone else, even if they are less qualified than you. It's hard to come to terms with the idea that you yourself are to blame, so you convince yourself that everything was predetermined.

How to deal with this error

We often discard information that does not fit into our picture of the world. To overcome this, imagine how else the situation could have developed. Try to logically explain other options for the development of events - this way you will see the cause-and-effect relationships more clearly.

Keep a prediction diary. Write in it your assumptions about changes in political life and career, about your weight and health, about the possible ending of your favorite TV series.

Compare these records from time to time with the current state of affairs. And you will be surprised how poorly you "predict" the future.

Read the diaries of historical figures and compare their assumptions with the real course of events. Take a look at the news from five, ten or twenty years ago. And you will understand how unpredictable life really is.

And of course, remind yourself of the hindsight mistake. When you want to exclaim “I knew it would be so!” Slow down. And if during an argument your interlocutor claims that he was always right, give him a favor. Because he really believes it because of the retrospective bias.