Why you shouldn't listen to successful people

You have been looking for a job for several weeks, and here your former colleague says that she got a job in an excellent company after studying on well-known courses in programming, copywriting, SMM - emphasize the necessary. Inspired, you graduate from the same school, but for some reason employers still do not line up to offer you a place. And judging by what other graduates write in the chat, most of them have the same problems, and the lucky ones who managed to immediately find a profitable job are rather a rare exception to the general rule. Both you and all these people have fallen prey to the cognitive trap - survivor bias.

What is survivor's mistake

During World War II, the US military commissioned mathematician Abraham Wald to figure out how to reduce the loss of combat aircraft. He analyzed what damage the planes returning from the raids received and where exactly these damage is located. The representatives of the military commission decided that it was in these areas - for example, in the area of the fuselage and the fuel system - and it was necessary to strengthen the armor of the aircraft.

But Wald saw a discrepancy in this assumption and objected that, on the contrary, it was necessary to strengthen those places where there was no damage. Because planes with holes in them - say, in the engine - simply did not return to base.

Such a cognitive distortion, in which we take into account only the successful experience, intentionally or accidentally leaving the unsuccessful one in the shadows, Abraham Wald called the survivor's mistake.

How survivor error affects our lives

Falling into the net of this trap, we see only those who have succeeded, but we simply do not notice the losers. At the same time, we are fully confident that we are considering the whole picture. Due to lack of information or unwillingness to take negative data into account, we draw completely wrong conclusions, which lead to disappointments, losses and other troubles.

Survivor's mistake and business

Everyone loves success stories. There lived a man who seemed to be unremarkable, and then suddenly became a successful athlete, actor or tycoon, occupying the first lines in the Forbes rating. And before he succeeded, he grew up in a poor family, as an option, he did not study at school, earned his first money as a child, selling some little things. This archetypal rags-to-riches plot inspires us a lot.

There are 12 million working poor in Russia - that is, people who work, but at the same time live in poverty. The chances of success, alas, are not as high as they want to present us, and the attitude “he could do it, I can do it” just perfectly illustrates the systematic error of the survivor.

Survivor error and creativity

Everyone knows the almost fabulous celebrity success stories. Before becoming an Oscar-winning actor, Brad Pitt worked as a driver and even invited customers to a restaurant in a Chicken costume. J. K. Rowling was a single mother living on welfare, and after writing the first volume of Harry Potter, she received many rejections from publishers.

You can continue for a long time. Almost every star - stage, literature, movie, or catwalk - has a story like this. They make us believe that everyone can achieve success, the main thing is dedication and desire. But we do not know how many young actors - perhaps no less talented and beautiful than Brad Pitt - knock the doorsteps of the studios every day. And we have no idea how many writers have not added their manuscripts to the publishing house. Nobody keeps such statistics. And it’s in vain, because error analysis would be more useful than endless retelling of success stories. Moreover, sometimes chance and luck play the main roles in them.

Survivor error and health

Sometimes we fall into the trap of thinking because we do not have complete information or forget to look at the picture from all sides. In this publication, the researchers analyzed cases in which doctors believed surgery was a more effective method of treating infective endocarditis than drug therapy. The conclusion was based on survival rates and turned out to be erroneous: at first, scientists did not take into account the long-term consequences and the fact that the patients receiving the medication were in a more serious condition than those who were operated on.

But it also happens that a trap is set for us on purpose. For example, pharmaceutical companies order drug trials but only publish positive results. And the negative ones remain in the shadows, because they do not correspond to the interests of the manufacturer. And it's also good if the drug just turns out to be useless. But we may not know about some side effects or contraindications. So, in 2004, several scientific journals refused to publish the results if the pharmaceutical company did not register the trials from the very start - in this situation, it would be problematic to hide some information. But there is no guarantee that all medical journals in the world are as principled.

Also, the victims of the trap are those who believe stories in the spirit of "I cured depression with sports, ulcers with vodka, insomnia with St. John's wort." These are all typical illustrations of the survivor's mistake. Or cured.

Survivor error and seals

In 1987, an article was published in which veterinarians wrote that cats that fell from a height of less than six stories survived less often than those that fell from a higher height. The explanation was quite logical: a cat that fell, for example, from the fourth floor, does not have time to regroup in the air, lands unsuccessfully and gets more serious injuries.

Later, it was suggested that this is not entirely true. Animals that have fallen from the 1st to 5th floors are more often brought to the clinic, and those who have fallen from the sixth and higher are more likely to be considered hopeless and left to die. This means that a sample based only on cats brought to the vet is not representative.

How to avoid the trap

Examples of survivor bias can be enumerated for a long time. They are found in all walks of life and lead to confusion and disappointment. There is no universal way to get around the trap. But in order not to become a victim of it, before making important decisions, you need to look at the problem from different angles. Collect information, analyze, weigh options, draw conclusions.

Is it worth investing time and money in creating a YouTube channel just because Dud, Sobolev and Sasha Spielberg earn millions on their blogs? Do I need to take courses following the examples of several graduates who have been recruited by large companies? You decide. But in order to succeed in any endeavor, it is always worth considering the mistakes of the losers.