35 years ago, science fiction writer Isaac Asimov predicted what would happen in 2019

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Many of his predictions turned out to be prophetic.

35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the Canadian edition of The Star, impressed by Orwell's dystopia "1984", asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write a forecast article for 2019.

The year was not chosen by chance. Orwell's masterpiece came out of print in 1949 - 35 years earlier. The journalists found it curious to find out how our world will change in another 35 years. Azimov also became interested and gave his own development of events.

Now we have finally reached the point where the prophecies of the famous writer can be verified.

What came true

From Azimov's point of view, humanity on the way to 2019 should have been disturbed by three most important thoughts:

1. The likelihood of a nuclear war.
2. Massive computerization.
3. The use of outer space.

As for the first point, the years were before perestroika, when relations between the two superpowers - the USSR and the USA - reached a boiling point. The world was on the brink of disaster, but the futurist still chose to remain an optimist.

If the United States and the Soviet Union continue to cling to each other, it’s completely useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will survive, and I see no reason to describe in detail the global suffering. So let's assume that there will be no nuclear war.

Isaac Asimov

Asimov also predicted computerization surprisingly accurately, although in the early 1980s, few believed in the massive development of this area. Moreover, the science fiction writer made a number of additional conclusions from his prophecy, which are also coming true today. If you touch on this topic in more detail, you get the following.

1. Mass computerization

Asimov firmly called it inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, society will reach the level where it simply cannot exist without computers, which will be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.

Those countries that lag behind in this regard will suffer so obviously that their governments themselves will begin to demand computerization, as they demand weapons today.

Isaac Asimov

This prophecy has definitely come true: today there is a PC in almost every home, even in third world countries.

2. The disappearance of some professions

This fact, from the point of view of Azimov, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But at the same time, not everyone will please.

Before the industrial revolution, the vast majority of humanity was engaged in agriculture and related service work. When industrialization began, the transition from farm to factory was quick and painful. With computerization, the transition from a factory to something new will be even faster and, as a result, even more painful.

Isaac Asimov

It's not even that computers will take jobs away from people. The need for a whole range of professions will simply disappear: any clerical work, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. Computers and robots controlled by them will begin to execute them, and they will do it more quickly and successfully.

The prediction also came true: by 2019, a number of professions, for example, telephone operators and stenographers, have already died out, and by 2020, dozens of other specialties are expected to disappear from the market. Moreover, as Azimov suggested, this is due exactly to the automation and development of computer control systems.

3. Changing the concept of education

The advent of computers and the associated changes in the labor market, according to the writer, will require radical changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If before industrialization a person could live a full life without knowing literacy, then in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to handle computers and navigate the new high-tech world.

The futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. By 2019, they may well be replaced by computers, and children will receive education at home - not according to the standard school curriculum, but at an individual pace and in accordance with their own interests.

In general, this prediction can also be considered, if not come true, then actively coming true. The principles of upbringing and education of children have changed dramatically, with more and more parents preferring the so-called distance learning in online schools.

4. Growing problems with the environment

The consequences of human irresponsibility in terms of waste and pollution will become more obvious and unbearable over time. Attempts to deal with this will become more stressful. Hopefully, by 2019, advances in technology will provide us with the tools to help reverse environmental degradation.

Isaac Asimov

The first half of this forecast, obviously, came true: environmental problems in the world are really growing. But with the second, unfortunately, there was a bobble: modern scientists have not been able to offer a way out of this crisis.

What did not come true (but, perhaps, will come true)

There are other moments in which human society progresses more slowly than the astute science fiction writer expected. Here they are.

1. Robots in every home

As the author of the laws of robotics, Azimov was sure on the eve of 1984: “A mobile computerized object, which is also a robot, has already penetrated into industry. In the next generation, it will penetrate every home."

Until that happened. Unless, of course, we consider robotic vacuum cleaners, smart coffee makers and kettles with Internet access as full-fledged "mobile computerized objects".

2. Successful space exploration

By 2019, according to Azimov's forecasts, humanity will return to the Moon with renewed vigor and even create a colossal inhabited station there, whose employees will extract minerals and produce building materials from them, necessary for the construction of other objects in space. The science fiction writer also assumed the launch of global industries into orbit (this would reduce environmental pollution on the planet) and the creation of a huge space power plant to collect solar energy and transfer it to Earth.

But something went wrong.

3. World Peace

The need to solve social, educational, environmental, space issues, on which the existence of our civilization directly depends, should force humanity to unite.

Cooperation between nations and groups within nations will grow - not because of a sudden rise in idealism or decency, but because of the cold-blooded realization that lack of cooperation means death for all.

Isaac Asimov

So Azimov believed, predicting even the creation of a semblance of a world government. Alas, the legendary science fiction writer was again too optimistic in this matter.