What is futurology and what future might await us

What is futurology

It is a discipline that, based on the trends of the modern world, tries to predict the future of humanity. Futurology cannot be fully considered a science, if only because hypotheses about future events cannot be verified experimentally.

Futurists are often criticized and compared to science fiction writers and charlatans, but the discipline is taught in some Western universities. The representatives of the direction themselves do not deny that their methods are imperfect. But they say that the methods of prediction are improving, which means that predictions will become more accurate.

For example, in the past, futurists mainly relied on the humanities and predicted the future based on subjective impressions. But over time, data analysis, statistics and the results of the latest scientific experiments began to be used for forecasts. For example, using Big Data, trends in the development of agriculture are determined.

Why not every prediction can be considered futurological

To name the result of a football match or upcoming elections is not a futurological forecast. But to assume the resettlement of people to another planet, the widespread spread of a new type of transport or a global catastrophe - yes.

Futurologists make predictions based on historical knowledge, as well as information about the current situation. In essence, such people are engaged in extrapolation - spreading observations of the present and the past into the future. This is how experts try to identify alternatives and ways by which the most favorable results can be obtained.

How futurology is used

Many predictions have come true. For example, the emergence of mobile communications or the development of a modern post-industrial society, when the economy is more based on services and intellectual labor than on industry.

Knowing about the possible options for the development of events helps to better prepare for them. That is why, for example, politicians and businessmen often turn to futurists.

To determine the vector of state development

Even in the last century, some futurologists predicted a global ecological catastrophe. Those world leaders worried about this forecast are passing laws to reduce waste and harmful emissions into the atmosphere, as well as to eliminate the use of fossil fuels. In turn, the leaders of countries whose economies largely depend on the sale of energy resources must look for new options for generating income.

To assess business prospects

This helps to develop company policy, identify growth points and insure against potential losses. For example, in the 1970s, Shell created a dedicated strategic team to predict a wide variety of events that could affect corporate profits. Thus, the futurists of the oil giant considered the collapse of the socialist system as one of the possible factors that could affect the price of oil.

There are 1 in-house futurologists.

4. Google, Swarovski, Volovo, Dell. Other companies use specialized agencies such as Kjaer Global.

To predict changes in everyday life

This helps, for example, when choosing a profession or investing. So, it is clear that in the coming decades, the IT and high-precision industry will become more and more important. This means that investments in them, including through their own education, are fully justified.

Conversely, with the development of technology, it becomes clear that some sectors of the economy will change dramatically. For example, in the near future, the profession of a driver, taxi dispatcher or cashier may disappear, as has already happened with train stokers, typists and car assemblers.

What future, according to futurologists, can await us

In their forecasts, futurists usually adhere to pessimistic or optimistic scenarios. The first assumes that humanity will face a radical change in culture, lifestyle and consciousness due to environmental, technological, demographic and military disasters. The second is also based on the assumption that people's lives will change. But for a different reason - we will be able to create other prosperous societies.

Here are some of the futuristic predictions.

The emergence of smart clothes and food

This will save people from having to go shopping and restaurants. The smart suit will adjust the shape and color according to the preference of the wearer. As food, small tablets will be used that can change the taste and contain enough calories and vitamins.

Building a society where people no longer need to work

According to another concept, robots will be able to take on all physical labor instead of humans. So people will be freed from the need to constantly work, and all goods and services will become cheaper. After that, we will only have to receive an unconditional income and engage in exclusively intellectual work.

Replacing money with a rating of good deeds

Some go further and assume that as technology advances, money will no longer be needed. They will be replaced by a rating of good deeds. This may sound like science fiction, but certain steps are already being taken. For example, in China, emotion recognition systems have been developed. They can, for example, be used to reward benevolent people and to prevent conflict and suicide. However, so far all this causes only fears in the spirit of totalitarian dystopias.

Moving away from paper documents in favor of digital

Some futurists generally believe that everyone will soon be required to have a digital ID. Already today, such electronic documents, for example, an account on "State Services", greatly simplify the life of their owners. And in Estonia, the entire document flow is gradually being transferred to digital.

The death of classical education and the offline personality

Along with the development of neurointerfaces, training will accelerate significantly. Knowledge will be loaded directly into the head or even become useless due to instant access to any information “from the brain”. You can also upload your identity to the Internet. As a result, online counterparts will appear. They, for example, will be able to conduct appointments instead of real doctors who will rest at home.

Exacerbating inequality and social conflict

Progress is not going smoothly. For example, when the London Underground opened, many other countries did not yet have railways. Technological advances also unevenly reach different segments of the population.

For example, at first, bionic prostheses or advanced disease treatments will only be available to the wealthy. This can exacerbate inequality and lead to new social conflicts. Discontent will grow, and with it the spread of radical ideas. This, of course, will not lead to anything good.

Creation of info colonies by large states

In the past, powerful powers took over weak countries and turned them into colonies. In the future, perhaps states will do the same, but with the help of information, not armies.

The emergence of AI superior to humans

In this scenario, we will lose control of technological progress. Artificial intelligence will evolve much faster than human intelligence and will soon be able to surpass us. That being said, it is not at all necessary that a smart AI will become a good AI. If the artificial intelligence learns to set goals for itself, it will be very difficult to predict them. It may happen that he begins to control us. And, perhaps, do it secretly. Then people will no longer understand what decision the algorithms made for them, and what they themselves.

The rapid development of AI will lead to other interesting consequences. For example, a resistance movement of robotization may occur. But the opposite extreme is also permissible: the emergence of people who worship artificial intelligence.

Why futurists can be wrong

Don't worry if some predictions scare you. They don't always come true, and here's why.

The future is not straight and ambiguous

Events that have not yet happened can unfold in a variety of ways. This is partly why futurists usually do not limit themselves to one forecast, but describe several possible options. But this does not always help. After all, a number of factors have to be taken into account: social, technological, economic, environmental and political.

Some things are impossible to foresee

There are many unexpected events in the world - the so-called "black swans". Nobody expected them, but they happened and had global consequences. For example, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand led to World War I, and the collapse of the USSR to the end of the Cold War. As the creator of the term "black swan" Nassim Taleb says, we are trying to predict the price of oil 30 years ahead, not knowing what it will be next summer.

The coronavirus pandemic has also become a kind of "black swan", although, for example, Bill Gates predicted it back in 2015.

Extrapolation does not always work

It is limited by the conditions of the moment.

For example, in the 1950s, futurists believed that at the beginning of the 21st century, interplanetary tourism would become commonplace, and computers would not be popular. This is because the space industry was booming, and mechanical computing seemed to be able to meet all the needs of people.

Prediction is influenced by the personality of the predictor

Futurology is not devoid of subjectivity. In many ways, therefore, discipline cannot be considered a rigorous science. For example, Herbert Wells predicted the creation of the European Union and globalization even before the advent of futurology at the beginning of the 20th century. But at the same time, the writer did not believe that humanity would achieve great success in aviation and the construction of submarines. The famous science fiction writer believed that height and speed would make people dizzy.