Table of contents:
- Why shouldn't you rely on money from the state?
- Will the Russian Pension Fund have any money at all?
- What pension will I have if I still live?
- And what should I do now?
- How can you guarantee a comfortable old age?
- So where to invest?
- What do you need to know?
- Where is the best place to open a brokerage account?
- On what basis to make decisions?
- And what if you are too lazy to figure it out?
2023 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-07-28 10:38
Don't expect a decent pension, even if you have a decent official salary. Better start saving and learn how to invest correctly.
Why shouldn't you rely on money from the state?
Every month I give 22% of my earnings to the state to ensure my own old age. From a salary of 100,000 rubles, 264,000 rubles are obtained in pension contributions per year.
Over 45 years of work experience, 11.88 million rubles are recruited, and this is without compounding, that is, without taking into account the time value of money.
The amount is nice, but I won't see it.
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy
data by country of life in Russia - 66 years for men and 77 - for women. It is clear that the numbers are arbitrary, but let's take them as a starting point. Given the new retirement age (65 for men and 63 for women), I will barely have time to retire in the future.
The average woman will have another 13 years to live. With a pension of 10,000 rubles a month, this is only 1.56 million rubles over 13 years.
The total net profit of the state, received from two old men of different sexes, is 22.2 million rubles.
Will the Russian Pension Fund have any money at all?
A reasonable question: where and with what profitability does the PFR invest?
According to the Basic Information on Investing Pension Savings Funds for March 2018, the PFR invests through 33 management companies. But in fact, 98% is invested through Vnesheconombank. Here is the calculation Calculating the value of the investment portfolio and calculating the value of the net assets in which the pension savings are invested at the value of the net assets of the investment portfolio.
Google yourself where VEB actually "invested" pension savings. Fund managers not only did not make money, they lost 40% of what they had.
In the financial balance, such a technique is known - the substitution of one asset for another: for example, money with securities. There is an audit institution for assessing the fair value of assets in the private sector. But nobody audits the Russian state.
Therefore, I believe that a prosperous future for the FIU is unlikely.
What pension will I have if I still live?
Many people are worried about the question: if I live to retire, will I receive my money and how will it be calculated? But the money is not yours: the funded part of the pension was canceled back in 2014 (it seems like it was frozen). Given the dynamics of the situation, most likely forever.
Your deductions go to the current provision of pensioners and have a very conditional relationship to you. Pension is calculated How the future pension is formed and calculated through the PKI, but this is still not money in the pension account.
To put it simply, the IPC is just an accounting factor: whoever gives more will receive more in the future. And this is about the distribution of the existing fund among pensioners, and not about investments and savings.
The contributions will be provided by your children and grandchildren. Just like you are now paying for retired parents and grandparents. Therefore, no one knows what your pension will be, not even the FIU.
And what should I do now?
Rely only on yourself. Turn on the head. Turn off laziness. Read the recommendations of experienced experts.
It so happened that you live in a country with an increased country risk. Country risk affects the value of money and interest rates on loans. (This is why we have such a big difference in mortgage rates with Europe.)
But there is good news as well. You live in a great time: boundaries are blurred, IT and finance have merged in the ecstasy of technological opportunity.
The answer to the question "How to earn a retirement without sacrificing your life now?" pretty simple: learn to invest on your own.
4 self-tested rules of successful investing
- Create a constant cash flow. Transfer 10% of your earnings to your own "retirement fund".
- Explore simple and reliable investment tools. Don't get fooled by complex derivatives - more often than not, it's a scam.
Reduce risks as much as possible. Eliminate the country risk by investing in foreign instruments.
Solve the risk of default by individual issuers and the volatility of portfolio returns by diversifying the asset portfolio. Remove the risk of the banking system of the Russian Federation (or exceeding the DIA limit) by refusing deposits.
- Go into it as if your life depended on it. At least, its quality in the future definitely depends on this. Not enough time? Consult a professional.
How can you guarantee a comfortable old age?
First, let's calculate the expected economic effect.
Let's take half of the official deductions to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation from the same salary of 100,000 rubles. Let's say 11,000 rubles a month for at least a 20-year (240 months) working period.
Here's an example of calculating your own retirement fund.
If you provide an annual return of 8% (this is more than realistic), you will form pension capital in the amount of almost 6.5 million rubles out of some 11,000 rubles a month.
You can start investing at 30, finish at 50, and you have 15 years to go. By the way, this is more than 40,000 rubles a month, if you withdraw all the money from the investment account at once and no longer receive interest.
Have you realized the benefits? They invested half as much as in the Pension Fund, saved up for only 20 years, and then enjoyed life for another 15 years for 40,000 rubles a month. Okay, we got it: 40,000 rubles in 2038 prices is not today's 40,000 rubles, so the table contains a calculation at the adjusted inflation rate (4%). This means that in the prices of the year you reach 50, you will receive 4,034,000 million, and this is already a pension of 25,800 rubles a month. Whatever one may say, it is still better than no pension from the PFR.
So where to invest?
Where to go to make it simple and reliable, and even at 8%, - I will share my personal experience.
The Russian stock market is not an option. And the whole thing: stocks, bonds, mutual funds. And banks are there too. First, there are country and political risks. Secondly, the currency risk (the ruble is still unstable). Thirdly, in the Russian Federation, no one is interested in either a minority shareholder or a bondholder. The ultimate beneficiary of Russian companies is the CEO with a retinue of contractors. You can never control where they spend your profits.
The banking system is in a fever, the DIA is not a panacea. Especially in the case when you invest with a horizon of 20 years and capital over 1.4 million rubles.
The only thing you will have to face in the Russian market is brokers and an exchange, but in reality it is not scary at all and even free.
Better to invest in the global economy.
The entire economy of the planet (well, maybe, except for the DPRK) is based on the consumption paradigm. This boils down to the GDP of countries, and in finance, in turn, to the profits of companies that produce GDP.
The profits of companies are the growth of their capitalization, and capitalization is the value of shares. This means that the foundation (the basis for the growth of asset value) of the entire financial system of the world is the stock market. Everything else is secondary.
But what about bonds (bonds)? This is an elementary tool for raising borrowed capital, but the source of its repayment is the same profit of the company.
Do you know why companies place bonds and, in fact, borrow money? Yes, because they will earn 15% of the invested capital, and they will give you 8% on bonds, that is, they will receive 7% just like that. The money was yours, not theirs.
But this is absolutely fair, because they are obliged to give your 8% in almost any scenario (except for bankruptcy), and 15% are not required to pay to shareholders at all. And here it all depends on the ability of management to generate profits.
We have come to the key investment principle: profitability is directly proportional to risk. Stocks are more profitable and more risky, bonds are less profitable and less risky.
You already understood that I am bringing you to the formation of a portfolio of assets in the stock market. There is no need to be afraid of this. This is how the economy of developed countries works, but Russians are still mostly illiterate in this area.
Assess your risk profile, that is, how personally you are willing to suffer temporary losses and what kind of profitability you want. Depending on this, choose stocks, or bonds, or a combination of them.
Choose exclusively foreign companies and diversify your portfolio by industry. It is possible by country, but remember that the main economic growth is in the US IT sector.
What do you need to know?
For peace of mind during periods of market drawdown and low profitability, remember two golden rules:
- Be in the market. The theory of finance tells us an important thing: using only public information (for example, technical and fundamental analysis), it is impossible to beat the market in the long term. Therefore, it is useless to try to earn more market, waste your nerves. Be in the market.
- The crisis will not last forever. The times of financial crises must be endured. There is the concept of "deferred demand psychology". In a crisis, the consumer prefers to save. As soon as the crisis has passed, the consumer begins to consume excess savings. Thus, after the crisis, the stock market accelerates and quickly regains lost positions. This does not apply to bonds that have a fixed yield (you will receive coupons and principal in any scenario, except for one - the issuer's default).
Where is the best place to open a brokerage account?
I have tried different brokers and their analytics. From experience, I recommend opening a brokerage account with BCS, because archaisms such as digital signatures and the installation of third-party trading platforms are not required here.
For a passive investor, a web interface with SMS confirmation of orders will be enough.
On what basis to make decisions?
Don't reinvent the wheel, use professional consensus. There is enough information and services.
Stock market and economy news. Articles about investments and financial instruments. Stock quotes, charts online. Technical and fundamental analysis. Analysts' comments and forecasts.
BCS Express →
Currency quotes, stocks, indices, as well as technical analysis, charts, financial news and analytics.
Financial news: articles, estimates, analytics of the world financial market, quotes of currencies and stocks in real time.
Buying company shares and ETFs, bonds, currencies. Free opening and maintenance of a brokerage account.
Tinkoff Investments →
And what if you are too lazy to figure it out?
If you are looking for information, understand analytics and collect a portfolio yourself, you are simply too lazy, then I advise you to buy an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) for a ready-made portfolio of assets (stocks, bonds, metals). Better yet, collect a portfolio of different ETFs. Take a look at the returns, each exceeding 8% per annum.
This fashionable and effective financial instrument has become increasingly popular in business publications. Read, delve into. I'm sure you can figure it out without any problems.
- Don't believe in a decent state pension.
- The sooner you decide to independently shape your future security, the better.
- Do not invest in stocks and bonds of Russian companies.
- Invest in foreign financial instruments and grow your income along with the global economy. (This planet still has no other legal economy.)
- Reread the article carefully and proceed.
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