How to Learn to Predict the Future Using Exponential Thinking

Although technology has evolved exponentially (the rate at which a value grows is proportional to that value), our brains still think linearly. As a result, we have developed a view of the future, similar to how we imagine a ladder: after climbing a few steps, we can assume that the same steps await us further. We believe that every next day will be about the same as the previous one.

But, as Kurzweil writes in his book "The Singularity Is Coming" (), technological advancements are accelerating in many areas. This has led to such a leap in technology and the social sphere that misunderstandings arise not only between different generations, but also within one generation.

Today, the future does not unfold linearly, but exponentially, so it is now much more difficult to predict what will happen and when exactly. This is why the speed of technological progress surprises us so much.

How can we prepare for a new future if we are used to thinking completely differently? To begin with, let's take a closer look at what exactly exponential growth is.

What is exponential growth

Unlike linear growth, which occurs by repeatedly adding the same quantity, exponential growth is the repeated multiplication of that quantity. Therefore, linear growth on the chart will look like a straight line, steadily rising upwards, and exponential growth will look like a line that sharply soars upwards.

Here's another way to better understand what exponential growth is. Imagine that you are walking on a road with a stride length of one meter. After taking six steps, you will advance six meters (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). After another 24 steps, you will move 30 meters from the starting point. It's not hard to predict where you will end up in another 30 steps. This is the essence of linear growth.

Now imagine that you can double the length of each next step. After taking six steps, you will advance 63 meters, which is significantly more than the 6 meters that you would have walked with a normal step.

After taking 30 steps, you will now move away from the starting point by a billion meters (one million kilometers) - this distance is equal to twenty-six revolutions around the Earth. This is the amazing power of exponential growth.

Why exponential predictions are not believed

Note that by doubling the length of your stride, you will move for each next step a distance equal to the sum of all previous steps. Before you walk a billion meters (step thirtieth), you will be at the 500 million meter mark (step twenty-ninth). This means that the first steps will seem tiny compared to the last. Most of the growth will take place over a relatively short period of time.

This is why we often just don't notice exponential growth in its early stages. The speed of this process is deceiving: it starts slowly and gradually, at first it is difficult to distinguish it from linear growth. This is why predictions based on exponential growth rates seem so incredible.

When scientists began scanning the human genome in 1990, many critics noted that at the rate at which research could then be carried out, it would take millennia to complete the project. However, the scientists did it even a little earlier than the deadline they had set themselves (15 years). The initial version was ready in 2003.

Raymond Kurzweil

Will exponential growth ever stop

In practice, exponential growth cannot last forever, but it can last long enough. A steady exponential trend consists of a series of successive S-curves of the technology life cycle.

Each such curve consists of three stages of growth - initial slow growth, sharp rapid growth and leveling, when the technologies have already been sufficiently developed. These curves are superimposed on each other. When the development of one technology slows down, the development of another accelerates. And each time it takes less and less time to reach higher levels of performance.

Kurzweil lists five technological milestones in the 20th century:

electromechanics;
relay;
radio tubes;
discrete transistors;
integrated circuits.

When one technology exhausted its capabilities, the next one came to replace it.

How to prepare for the future

Be prepared to be amazed.

For example, what might the next five years look like? One of the usual ways to predict the future is to remember the past five years and imagine that further events will continue to develop at the same rate. But now it will no longer work, because the very speed of development is changing. Chances are, what you think is going to happen in the next five years will happen in three years.

For exponential thinking, it is not so much some special planning skills that are important (you already know how to plan), but the ability to correctly time the time. And for this we need to remember that our brains tend to think linearly and adjust their plans for an exponential future.

Why learning to think exponentially is important

Our linearly thinking brains can be a lot of hassle for us. Linear thinking leads not only to individuals but to businesses and governments to be caught off guard by exponential factors.

Large companies suffer losses from unexpected competitors, and we all worry that our future will spiral out of control. Thinking exponentially will help you get rid of these worries and face the future head-on.