Vladimir Putin addressed the people. We analyze what to prepare for

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Business will be hard. And it seems to be for a long time.

President Vladimir Putin made an address to the Russians. In it, he proposed a set of measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus, to support people and businesses in a difficult economic situation. In fact, not everything is so simple.

Holidays declared, not quarantine

The week from March 28 to April 5 will be closed. Obviously, this is done so that people who cannot work remotely, provide themselves with self-isolation. At the same time, no bans on movement around the city have been introduced. Consequently, the effect can be exactly the opposite: good weather and the Russian "maybe", which the president urged not to rely on, will bring out even those who have already moved to a calm and protected remote location.

But it's not only that. A week off employees must be paid in full, and this is quite a big blow to the business. A week is a long time, 25% of a month. Those who are already struggling to make ends meet will be forced to stop working and lose income. And also find money to pay non-working employees. So this measure is clearly not a lifeline for a drowning man, but rather a weight tied to his leg. There is no talk of compensation from the budget yet.

Tax deferral will only postpone financial collapse

As compensation for the "inconvenience", businesses are offered a deferral for all taxes except for VAT, and for micro-enterprises - also for insurance premiums. The postponement is not an exemption, so after six months the companies will still be asked for the debt.

Probably, in a super-optimistic scenario, everything would be rosy. In two months the situation will return to normal, the economy will recover for two months, and for another two months it will show unprecedented growth. In this case, the organization will not only have time to recover, but also accumulate surpluses, and therefore will easily distribute debts.

The chances of such a development of events, frankly, are small.

According to optimistic forecasts, the coronavirus pandemic will decline in the summer. But for the economy to recover, people must be unafraid, content and solvent. Which is hardly possible against the backdrop of rising currencies, forecasts for lower incomes and rising unemployment.

A decrease in insurance premiums will not lead to an increase in salaries

The decision to cut insurance premiums from 30% to 15% looks better for companies. As follows from the president's speech, this measure is being introduced “on a long-term basis,” so that employers have an incentive to raise workers' wages. But this looks utopian. Rather, such a measure will help enterprises to reduce the burden on the budget.

This is how things are now. Let's say an employee is paid a salary of 20 thousand rubles. After deducting personal income tax, he receives 17,400 rubles. At the same time, the employer transfers to compulsory pension and medical insurance, as well as social insurance, the same 30% - 6 thousand rubles. That is, the employee costs him 26 thousand rubles. Now this amount will be reduced to 23 thousand.

Probably, according to the plan, the employer should continue to spend 26 thousand: 23 thousand for the employee (20 010 for hands), 3 thousand - for insurance premiums. You don't have to be a genius of economics to understand that it is unlikely that this will happen. Especially in the current environment.

Will only help those who are very bad

Some measures to support the population look promising, although they will only help those whose financial situation is completely deplorable. For example, the decision to prolong all social benefits and allowances for six months will automatically help avoid queues at the social security authorities and save people from unnecessary headaches.

The decision to change the calculation of sick leave could be an effective measure not only of financial support, but also of the fight against coronavirus. Now payments depend on the size of the salary and the official length of service. As a result, people often go to work sick so as not to lose money. Now they propose to calculate sick leave payments based on the minimum wage - 12 130 rubles.

The new calculation method will be a salvation only for people with low incomes. For the rest, it is still more profitable to go to work sick.

The situation is similar with unemployment benefits. The President said literally the following: “The maximum unemployment benefit payment is limited to 8 thousand rubles a month. I propose to increase it to the level of the minimum wage, that is, up to 12,130 rubles. That is, you cannot get more of this amount, but less, it turns out, you can. Now the minimum is 1.5 thousand rubles.

The source of additional payments for children is not clear

Not everything is clear with payments for children. In his speech, the president said: "I propose that in the next three months, starting from April, to pay all families eligible for maternity capital, an additional 5 thousand rubles a month for each child under the age of three."

The clarification about the parent capital looks suspicious here. Now families with two children or with one if he was born in 2020 have the right to it. Therefore, families with a baby born on December 31, 2019 cannot apply for support. Again, it is possible that the money will be paid not in addition, but from the funds of the maternity capital. This is already done with the monthly allowance for poor families, if it is allocated for the second child.

Mortgage Holidays Existed Before

Finally, there are credit holidays. It was possible to get a mortgage deferral even before the president's speech. The relevant law provides for a 30% decrease in income as the reason for this. As for consumer loans, it is unclear how this will be organized and how it will backfire for banks (and then for their clients). Now Russians owe banks 17.5 trillion rubles. So if at least half of the debtors decide to get an extension, the consequences can be unpredictable.

What is the bottom line

1. Judging by the announced dates, the authorities expect the situation to improve in six months. But, of course, no one can guarantee this.
2. Support measures for the population will affect only those who will be very bad. Those who just feel bad will have to survive on their own.
3. Business is not easy now, and in six months it will be even worse, because deferrals and a moratorium on filing applications of creditors for bankruptcy of companies and collection of debts and fines will end.
4. If you do not intend to lose your job and want to support your company, it is better to spend this vacation working for a better future. However, even if you hate your employer, it will not be so easy to find a new one, so it is better to take care of saving this one.
5. The coronavirus will spread, all current measures are aimed at containing, not preventing, the disease.
6. It will get worse, but you hold on. It will definitely get better one day.

Coronavirus. Number of infected:

243 050 862

in the world

8 131 164

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