Where did the flu disappear during the COVID-19 pandemic and whether to wait for it back

In the middle of last year, some experts frightened Fearing a ‘Twindemic,’ Health Experts Push Urgently for Flu Shots mankind with the coming autumn-winter “twindemia” - a double epidemic in which COVID-19 and the flu will combine. A really creepy scenario was presented: they say, in the fall, the number of hospitalizations due to seasonal colds will traditionally increase and this will finish off the hospitals already overcrowded with patients with coronavirus infection.

But the frightening predictions did not come true. The flu surprised researchers, and now they are making even darker predictions.

What happened to the flu

The short answer is that the cold season never really happened. For the first time in the history of observations, doctors are faced with the fact that there is practically no incidence of influenza - the most dangerous of seasonal infections.

If we analyze the situation that is happening now not only in Russia, but also in European countries and on a global scale, we can safely say that this has not happened in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the last century. This situation is unique, and it is very interesting to follow it. The virologist announced the first epidemic season without influenza in the history of observations.

Daria Danilenko Head of the Department of Etiology and Epidemiology of the A. A. Smorodintsev Research Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, for Interfax

The common cold season in the Northern Hemisphere begins How COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season around mid-December and lasts until late March or early April. But not this year. The World Health Organization reports that the incidence of influenza is low or in the off-season. That is, people become infected like in the summer.

WHO echoes the American Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC): they call it Weekly U. S. Influenza Surveillance Report The incidence of influenza is "unusually low". Between October 1, 2020 and April 17, 2021, only 223 people were hospitalized for this respiratory infection Weekly U. S. Influenza Surveillance Report. Key Updates for Week 11, ending March 20, 2021 versus 19,932 Weekly U. S. Influenza Surveillance Report. Key Updates for Week 12, ending March 21, 2020, admitted to hospital in the same period last year.

This means that in the United States, the total number of hospitalizations for influenza has decreased by 99%.

The situation is similar in Russia. On January 15, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, said Popova said that there is no flu in Russia today: “There is no flu in the country, but today, let me remind you, is already the middle of January. There hasn't been such a year yet”. By mid-March, little had changed: according to the same Popova, cases of the disease were practically not recorded Rospotrebnadzor does not expect an increase in the incidence of influenza in the spring.

Why is the flu gone

How COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season is believed to have disappeared from COVID-19. But not in the sense that conspiracy theorists like to use: supposedly the flu disappeared due to the fact that doctors attribute any sneeze to a coronavirus infection. No, everything is much simpler.

The situation looks as if anti-coronavirus measures were more effective against influenza than against COVID-19, which only in the Russian Federation is infected every day. WHO warned of the danger of COVID-19 against the background of a "soft plateau" in Russia over 8 thousand people.

Scientists still find it difficult to voice a complete list of reasons for the disappearance of influenza. But here are three that have clearly prevented the virus from spreading freely from one carrier to another.

Hygiene measures

Masks in public places and regular hand washing all help keep respiratory infections at bay.

Limiting personal contacts

Due to the pandemic, people are more likely to keep their distance from each other. In addition, many have switched to remote work, and schools have switched to distance learning. Because of this, people began to use public transport much less frequently. And the number of long-distance travel has decreased.

Mass vaccination against influenza

In anticipation of tweendemia, states have launched large-scale vaccination campaigns. As a result, for example, in Russia, according to Popova, said that there is no flu in Russia today, Rospotrebnadzor, by the middle of winter, about 60% of citizens were vaccinated.

Will the flu come back

But this is a debatable question. On the one hand, “low season” can kill some strains. Perhaps forever.

On the other hand, as a result of a decrease in viral competition, new versions of influenza, for example, dangerous variants of swine or avian, may become active. People face such infections all the time, at the same agricultural fairs or when visiting zoos. However, due to the fact that our body is familiar with influenza, natural immunity helps to contain the infectious attack. But if the virus disappears for several seasons, the immune system will weaken - with unpleasant (perhaps even catastrophic) consequences.

Another difficulty lies in the fact that due to the canceled influenza season, scientists are not capable of The pandemic dramatically reduced flu cases. That could backfire predict which strains of the virus would be active by next winter. This means that they will not be able to create really working vaccines. This will likely overlap with the end of the coronavirus pandemic, when people happily throw off their masks and rush into each other's arms. The effect can be colossal: in the winter of 2021–2022, there will be not a seasonal outbreak of influenza, but a real explosion.

However, forecasts, as we have already found out above, are a thankless task. Whether events will develop according to a negative scenario or humanity will be lucky (how lucky it was to avoid tweendemia) - only time will tell.