How to tell if you're being lied to in the news: 7 common tricks

1. False numbers

When it comes to statistics and numbers, we usually believe in them blindly, because everything seems to be counted. However, sometimes the numbers mask completely implausible information. For example, what do you say about this statement:

All 35 years after California's marijuana law ended, the number of smokers has doubled every year.

Sounds believable? Let's count. Suppose there was only one marijuana smoker in California 35 years ago. Of course, this is a very underestimated estimate, but it will back us up.

If we double this number annually for 35 years, we get 17 billion people - more than the population of the entire globe. This statement is not entirely implausible - it is simply impossible.

What to do:if someone operates with numbers, this does not mean at all that he has counted everything. Think back to school math lessons and add healthy skepticism. As a rule, this is enough to bring liars to clean water.

2. Part of the truth

Sometimes we are told the truth. But not all. You've probably heard the phrase:

Colgate toothpaste is recommended by four out of five dentists.

It turns out that in the survey, dentists could recommend more than one toothpaste. And as it turns out, the biggest competitor, Colgate, was recommended almost as often as Colgate - a detail you'll never hear in an ad.

What to do:When making important decisions, look for more information. Don't believe the facts, even if they seem plausible.

3. Doubtful experts

Experts generally refer to people who have received specialized training and who have devoted a lot of time to developing their professional skills and abilities, such as degree holders, pilots, musicians or athletes.

Experts tend to specialize in a very narrow field. They can also be biased.

In the case of a tumor, a surgeon-oncologist can prescribe an operation, a radiation oncologist - radiation, and a therapist-oncologist - chemotherapy.

Competence is also relative. Einstein was an expert in physics 60 years ago. If he were alive, perhaps, he would not have been considered so good and would not have been able to understand what is known today to Stephen Hawking and other physicists.

Moreover, experts with similar qualifications and level of knowledge do not always agree with each other. Thousands of financial analysts make completely different predictions about the stock exchange rate - it is more like a game of roulette. The same is true with many other expert predictions.

What to do:When an expert is introduced to you, consider whether he or she is competent enough in the area and does not express a preconceived opinion. A truthful message must contain the opinions of different experts with the same high qualifications.

4. Average values

The media often refers to averages. But in practice, they do not give any idea of the real situation.

For example, you are told that the average wealth of a hundred people in a room is a whopping $ 350 million. You will think that the rich are gathered there. But the room could contain Mark Zuckerberg (his fortune is estimated at $ 25 billion) and 99 poor people.

Average values in practice often do not give any idea of the real situation.

Another example: you can read that one in five newborn babies is Chinese. You notice that the family next door already has four children, and now they are waiting for replenishment. But a little Chinese is unlikely to be born in their family. The average is calculated over all births in the world, not in a specific family, in a specific house, in a specific area, or even a country.

What to do:be careful with averages as well as how they are interpreted. From the mean, it is almost never possible to infer what is really going on.

5. Hidden reasons

We are often told about sensational discoveries or facts that no one knew about.

For example, on some website you came across the results of experiments saying that a completely new, previously unknown vitamin cocktail will increase your IQ level by 20 points. But why hasn't anyone heard of this? You are told that pharmaceutical companies are hiding this fact so that you buy more expensive supplements and vitamins.

Is there no alternative explanation here? Perhaps someone just wants to make money on a pseudo-cocktail and is frankly lying.

What to do:When evaluating someone's statement, ask yourself if there is any reason other than the one you are told about that might cause the situation in question.

6. False correlations

There is so much going on in the world that there is always room for strange coincidences. They are often presented to us as cause and effect. However, this could be a simple coincidence.

Tyler Vigeon, a law student at Harvard University, created a website where he collected examples of strange correlations, such as these:

Does Nicolas Cage really have superpowers and drowns people? Of course not. Most likely, we are dealing with a simple coincidence.

What to do:if you are told about a causal relationship between phenomena that are loosely related, remember: this can be a coincidence. Demand more proof.

7. Incorrect selection

The media often report on the results of public opinion polls, but do not say anything about who exactly participated in the survey.

For example, you may have heard that the youth unemployment rate in Spain was 23%, which is amazing. However, it turned out that in the report one sample included people who belong to different social groups: there were students who were not interested in looking for work, and those who had just been fired, and those who were looking for work.

Sometimes researchers are just looking in the wrong place.

The July 2015 USA Today newspaper reported that the US unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, the lowest level since April 2008. More competent sources named their reason for the apparent decline: many unemployed simply gave up trying to find a job, so they were not included in the reports from a purely technical point of view.

What to do:When you are presented with the results of a public opinion survey, clarify who exactly the scientists interviewed and whether they did not miss an alternative explanation.

To make the right decisions, you need to distinguish truth from fiction and exaggeration. The publishing house "MYTH" published the book "Guide to Lies". Use it to avoid falling for the bait of liars and filter information that comes from news and advertisements.