5 tips from game theory to help you avoid mistakes

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Game theory can help you think strategically, predict the course of events, win quests and get bank loans, even if you have bad credit.

1. Dating game

In each situation, we adhere to a certain strategy. This usually happens unconsciously, hence the frequent mistakes. You can avoid them if you learn to guess the actions of another person.

Take dating, for example. We all choose one main strategy: we try to hide the negative traits and show the positive ones.

Until I tell you that every evening I like to lie down with a beer on the couch. I'll tell you when she gets to know me better and realizes that otherwise I'm fine.

Paul sofa expert

Such a strategy is, rather, not a lie, but a reticence.

Example

Imagine a situation: a man and a woman meet for several months and one day they decide to move in. The man has a small apartment, so it is logical that we are talking about moving to the woman's apartment.

I must say that the man works as an economist. He analyzed the situation and realized that it was not profitable to refuse to rent an apartment. Now he pays little money and in the event of a break in relations, he will not find an equally good option. The woman, upon learning of this, immediately abandons the gentleman.

Where did this couple go wrong? The man, having correctly calculated the situation from an economic point of view, did not take into account the psychological factor. The woman perceived the gesture with the apartment as frivolity of intentions. But she did not think that her boyfriend, an economist, therefore, makes decisions primarily from the position of "profitable - unprofitable." Thus, this game was lost by both participants.

What to do

Consider not only your actions, but also the reactions of other people. Ask yourself more often: how can you interpret my action? Advice especially for men: explain your actions and remember that any misunderstanding is a reason for your other half to dream up. Strategic thinking is not only mathematics, but also psychology!

2. Game for 90 points

Riddles, quests, intelligence and logic tests will cease to be a problem after studying game theory. You will learn how to search for all the existing answer options and choose the most suitable one among them.

Example

Two students asked the professor to postpone the exam. They told a heartbreaking story about how they went to another city for the weekend, but on the way back they had a flat tire. They had to look for help all night, so they did not get enough sleep and do not feel well. (In fact, friends were celebrating the end of the session, and this exam was final and not the most difficult.)

The professor agreed. The next day, he seated the students in different classrooms and handed out a sheet of paper containing only two questions. The first was worth only 10 points, and the second - 90 and sounded like this: "Which wheel is flat?"

If we rely on logic, then the answer will be "Right front wheel": it is on the right, closer to the side of the road, most often there is any debris, which is first hit by the front tire. But don't be in a hurry.

In this situation, it is important to give not so much the correct (logical) answer as an answer that will be written on a piece of paper by a friend.

Therefore, it is obvious that both students will speculate on the assumption that the other thinks.

You can argue like this: do the students have something "in common" with one of the wheels? Perhaps a year ago they already had to change a wheel together. Or one tire is smeared with paint and both students know about it. If such a moment is found, it is this option that should be chosen. Even if the other student is not familiar with game theory, he can remember this case and point to the right wheel.

What to do

In your reasoning, rely not only on logic, but also on life circumstances. Remember: not everything that is logical for you is also logical for another. Involve friends and family in thinking games more often. This will allow you to understand how people close to you think, and in the future to avoid difficult situations, as in the example above.

3. Play with yourself

Knowledge of strategy games helps you to analyze your own decisions more deeply.

Example

A certain Olga decides whether to try smoking or not.

The figure shows the so-called game tree: it is useful to draw it every time you need to make a decision. The branches of this tree are variants of the development of events. The numbers (0, 1 and -1) are the winnings, that is, whether the player will be the winner if he chooses this or that option.

So where to start. First, you need to determine which solution will be the best and the worst. Suppose that Olga's preferred course of events is to try smoking, but not continue to do so. Let us assign a payoff of 1 to this variation (the first digit of the lower left branch). In the worst case, the girl will become addicted to smoking: we assign a payoff of -1 to this option (the first digit of the lower right branch). Thus, the tree branch with the option not to try smoking at all gets 0.

Suppose Olga decided to try smoking. What's next? Will she give up or not? This will already be decided by Future Olga, in the picture she comes into play on the "Try" branch. If she has already formed an addiction, then she will not want to quit smoking, so we set the “Continue” option to win 1 (the second digit of the lower right branch).

What do we get? The current Olga will benefit if she tries to smoke, but does not become addicted. And this, in turn, depends on Future Olga, for whom it is more profitable to smoke (she has been smoking for a long time, which means that she has an addiction, therefore, she will not want to quit). So is it worth the risk? Maybe play a draw: get a win of 0 and not try smoking at all?

What to do

It is possible to calculate a strategy not only in a game with someone, but also in a game with oneself. Try to draw a game tree and you will see if your current decision leads to a win.

4. Auction game

There are different types of auctions. For example, in the film "The Twelve Chairs" there was a so-called English auction. Its scheme is simple: the winner is the one who offers the highest amount for the exposed lot. Usually, a minimum step is set for raising the price, otherwise there are no restrictions.

Example

In the episode with the auction from "The Twelve Chairs," Ostap Bender made a strategic mistake. Following the offer of 145 rubles per lot, he immediately raised the price to two hundred.

From the point of view of game theory, Ostap should have raised the rate, but only minimally until there were no competitors left. Thus, he could save money and not get into a mess: Ostap did not have enough 30 rubles to pay the commission fee.

What to do

There are games like Auction that you only have to play with your head. Decide in advance on your tactics and think about the maximum amount you are willing to give per lot. Give yourself your word not to exceed the limit. This step will help you cope with the excitement if it suddenly overtakes you.

5. Playing in an impersonal market

An impersonal market is banks, insurance companies, contractors, consulates. In general, those participants in the game who do not have names and surnames. They are impersonal, but it is a mistake to believe that the rules of game theory do not apply to them.

Example

Maxim turns to the bank in the hope of getting a loan. His credit history is not perfect: two years ago, he refused to repay another loan for six months. The employee who accepts the documents says that, most likely, Maxim will not receive a loan.

Then Maxim asks permission to bring the documents. He brings an extract from the hospital confirming that his father was seriously ill during those six months. Maxim writes a statement, where he indicates the reasons for the delay in the payment of the previous loan (the money was needed for the treatment of his father). And after a while he gets a new loan.

What to do

When you do business with impersonal players, always remember that there are personalities behind them. Figure out how to draw your opponents into the game and set your own rules.

Game theory is a new science, but it is already being studied in the best universities in the world. The textbook "Strategic Games" has been published in the publishing house "MYTH". It will come in handy if you want to learn how to analyze your every action, make informed decisions, better understand not only others, but also yourself.