How to make big decisions: 3 tips from a poker champion

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

It turns out that the notorious intuition is greatly overestimated, and we, on the contrary, undeservedly write off luck.

In poker, decisions need to be made all the time, and the chances of winning depend on how correct they are. The experience of professional player and champion Liv Boeri shows that in real life everything is exactly the same. In her TED, she shares secrets to help you make informed decisions and succeed.

1. Consider the factor of luck and do not overestimate your abilities

As in poker, not everything in life depends on us. Luck also affects the likelihood of success in a particular business. Thinking of yourself as a genius, writing off ordinary luck, is a big and dangerous mistake. To prove this, Liv gives the following example.

In 2010, she won the European Poker Tour after only playing seriously for one year. The girl was so confident in her talent that she gave up studying poker and began competing with the best players in the world, risking more and more. Losing time and again throughout the next year, Liv finally realized that she had greatly overestimated her abilities.

People tend to play down the luck factor when things are going well. Therefore, at such moments, it is important to ask yourself if this is really your personal merit, and not just luck.

2. Use quantitative thinking

Abstract definitions in planning are as evil as they are in poker. The game is built on probabilities and accuracy, so you can't say "They're probably bluffing." Because of this, you can lose a lot of money. Instead of vague wording, you need to accustom yourself to think in numbers.

The probability of any event can be expressed as a percentage, but in the understanding of each person it will be different. Liv asked her Twitter followers what they meant by “maybe,” and the probability was between 10% and 90%.

So the next time you want to say “probably” or “sometimes,” use numbers instead of words. Unlike abstract phrases, they are perceived by the interlocutor quite unambiguously.

3. Don't rely on intuition

Social media is full of motivating pictures with captions like “Listen to your heart” or “Trust your sixth sense and don't doubt”. With very few exceptions, this does not work in poker or in life. Our intuition is not as perfect as we would like it to be.

The photo above shows the best poker players in the world. And you can see from them that these guys have achieved such heights, using far from feelings and intuition, but careful analysis and rationality.

Intuition should not be ignored, but it should not be overestimated either. It works in everyday things that you have done many times, but is not suitable for something really serious. You can use your intuition when trying to park in a tight spot, but it is better to rely on leisurely and accurate analysis when choosing a career or partner.

If you are interested in this topic, the full talk is available at TED.