Will there be a second wave of coronavirus and how to prepare for it

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Precautions will most likely have to be followed for a long time.

What is the second wave of coronavirus

There is no generally accepted scientific definition of the "second wave" (of a particular new disease). Even the WHO does not give clear instructions. But on the whole, the meaning is clear.

This term refers to new outbreaks that have occurred after the initial decline. The same can be said for the third wave of Coronavirus pandemic: Is the second wave already here? …

Christian Lindmeier WHO Representative, commenting on Deutche Welle

Experts predicted a second, autumn, wave of coronavirus infection a few months ago. And the signs of its approach in different countries are becoming Germany is showing ‘very concerning’ signs of a second coronavirus wave, the country’s doctors’union has warned more and more clearly.

Why experts are worried about the second wave of coronavirus

Thinking about the further development of the situation with COVID-19, scientists pay attention to the pandemics that humanity has already faced in the past. In particular - on the 1918 flu pandemic (the so-called Spanish flu) or H1N1 (swine flu) in 2009.

Both of these events began with a small wave of infections in the spring, followed by another wave of First and second waves of coronavirus in the fall.

Liza Maragakis MD, Infectious Disease Specialist

And if the H1N1 pandemic claimed no more than 20 thousand lives around the world, then the number of victims of the second wave of the Spanish flu was catastrophic - according to some estimates, up to 100 million people, or more than 5% of the H1N1 Influenza (Swine Flu) of the world's population.

It is impossible to say which of the scenarios the COVID-19 pandemic will develop. But the negative option, unfortunately, cannot be discounted.

Will there be a second wave of coronavirus?

There is no definite answer to this question. The opinions are very controversial.

Thus, Western experts believe First and second waves of coronavirus that a second wave is almost inevitable. This is due to two reasons:

• Inability to track contacts … At the start of the pandemic, the authorities and medical services quickly detected the sick and placed them in quarantine, at the same time controlling the chain of possible infections. This made it possible to limit the spread of infection. But now that COVID-19 is everywhere, contact tracing is becoming increasingly difficult. It is impossible to isolate the sick, and the disease spreads like wildfire.
• People fatigue from quarantine … Citizens are losing interest in following social distancing rules and wearing masks. And this is a global, worldwide trend that can also contribute to the spread of COVID-19.

On the other hand, in the same Russia they are optimistic. The publication Lenta.ru reports The second wave of coronavirus in Russia in September was questioned that, according to experts, there will be no second wave of coronavirus in September. For the reason that citizens from the group of the main carriers of the disease (doctors, couriers, cashiers, policemen) have already been ill. So, if a surge in the disease happens, it will not be as noticeable as in the first half of the year.

Why the second wave of coronavirus can be more dangerous than the first

Several factors First and second waves of coronavirus play a key role in this case.

1. Overloading the healthcare system by people with colds

If the second wave of COVID-19 occurs in the fall, it will take place against the background of the traditional outbreak of other seasonal infections - influenza, SARS, pneumonia. This threatens to overburden hospitals. It is one thing when eight people infected with coronavirus and only one person with complications of the flu are treated in a hospital, and it is quite another if there are more people with colds. The beds in hospitals (and the strength of the attending physicians) may simply not be enough.

2. Combination of infections

A person can get sick with different infections at the same time. For example, coronavirus and flu. This will make his condition more difficult, and the treatment difficult and time-consuming.

Another problem is that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer First and second waves of coronavirus children received the necessary vaccinations. This means that outbreaks of whooping cough or measles are not ruled out in the near future, which can also complicate the treatment of children infected with coronavirus.

3. Possible weakening of the immune system in those who have been ill

It is not yet reliably known whether it is possible to become infected with the coronavirus twice. There are examples when this happened Some people can get the pandemic virus twice, a study suggests. That is no reason to panic, but scientists are still studying this issue. The risk of re-infection is not excluded.

It should be borne in mind that COVID-19 is an unusual respiratory disease. It is known to severely target various organs and tissues, including the immune COVID-19 pandemic more than a century after the Spanish flu system.

Thus, if a person who has recently had a coronavirus becomes infected again, it can be extremely difficult for his body to cope with the infection. The risk of complications increases.

Will herd immunity protect us?

Perhaps one day, yes. But not today.

Herd immunity will begin to work only when 70% of the First and second waves of coronavirus of the population become immune to this disease.

By autumn 2020, this figure has not been reached. Accurate data around the world are not available, and the available ones do not inspire optimism. For example, in the largest European study of antibodies to date, conducted with the participation of 60 thousand residents of Spain, Prevalence of SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2 in Spain (ENE ‑ COVID) was found: a nationwide, population ‑ based seroepidemiological study that only 5% of Spaniards.

When to wait for the vaccine

Information about the creation of drugs that protect against COVID-19 appears. So, according to the report, the first batch of the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine was released into civil circulation by TASS, the Russian Ministry of Health has already announced that the first batch of the vaccine has been released into civil circulation. First of all, they plan to vaccinate citizens from risk groups - in particular, teachers and doctors. The nuance lies in the fact that the procedure will be carried out in parallel with the so-called post-registration clinical trials - that is, the effect of the vaccine is still being studied.

As for Western analogues, experts at Johns Hopkins University suggest that a safe and effective vaccine against coronavirus may not be available for many months, according to First and second waves of coronavirus.

How to prepare for the second wave of coronavirus

Regardless of whether the second wave happens and how destructive it will be, it makes sense to protect yourself and your loved ones from possible infection. Here are four simple steps to help you do this.

• Continue to take precautions against COVID-19. These include social distancing, regular hand washing, and wearing masks in public.
• Follow the news. This is necessary in order to be aware of the coronavirus outbreak in your area in time and, if necessary, to strengthen personal security measures. For example, switch to remote work or limit travel on public transport.
• Make sure you have a two-week supply of food, prescription drugs, and household supplies in your home. This is necessary in case it suddenly turns out that you have to comply with a strict self-isolation regime.
• If possible, get vaccinated against seasonal infections - the same flu. This will protect your body from dual disease.

Coronavirus. Number of infected:

243 093 598

in the world

8 131 164

in Russia View map