How the world will change when the world's population reaches 10 billion

What is the essence of the problem

For millennia, natural selection, parasites and resource scarcity have held back the overgrowth of populations of all animals, including humans. But with the advancement of technology, humans have upset this balance. The planet's population is increasing too rapidly, and in the near future there may be a shortage of water, food and energy.

What are the further scenarios

Scientists differ on how to prevent these problems: researchers are divided into so-called wizards and prophets. The former believe that science, when properly used, can help avoid collapse. The latter do not agree with this and advocate strict control of the main ecological processes, violations in which can put the life of all living things at risk.

Development along the path of wizards

The Technomages envision glittering, hyper-efficient metropolises surrounded by large swaths of untouched land and independence from natural resources. Energy is provided by compact nuclear power plants, food is provided by robotic eco-farms with ultra-productive GMO crops, and water is provided by desalination plants.

All 10 billion people are packed into superdense but easily passable megacities - an urbanized world of maximum human aspirations and freedom.

Development along the path of the prophets

Prophets dream of small, interconnected communities with the most humane relations and minimal corporate oversight. Most of the people there live in rural areas, use local solar and wind power installations. Water is collected from rainfall and reused. The population is supplied with food by small farms with orchards and root crops, and not by unproductive cereals.

But first of all, these people change their habits. Instead of a car, they take the eco-friendly train to work. Do not stand in the shower for half an hour, eat little and mostly plant foods. The prophets believe that observing natural restrictions will lead to freer, more democratic and healthy lifestyles.

What is wrong with existing forecasts

Both sides question the approaches of their opponents a lot.

The arguments of the prophets

Industrial farming causes soil erosion, creates coastal dead zones and destroys microbiomes in the soil.
Giant desalination plants produce gigantic mountains of toxic salt that cannot be recycled.
Scientists have not been able to prove the safety of superproductive GMO crops that are planned to feed humanity for 20 years already. They are still taken with hostility.
The willingness of society to build nuclear power plants is decreasing, so the use of clean, carbon-free energy, which should stop climate change, is a big question.

The arguments of the wizards

This way of life will lead to limitation, decline and widespread poverty.
Agriculture will only increase the impact on nature and force people to work for a pittance.
The technologies needed to create local solar power plants do not yet exist.
Reuse of water will slow down development. Its economy will not give anything, since even in developed cities a quarter of fresh water is lost due to leaking pipes.

Alternative solutions

To create a social movement, it is necessary to combine the efforts of wizards and prophets, so that both sides accept each other's fundamental ideas.

It must be admitted that nuclear power is harmless and does not emit carbon, and uranium mines are terrible. We need to agree with the safety of GMO crops and realize that industrial farming causes environmental problems. It is worth developing the selection of trees and root crops, which are much more productive than grain crops, but at the same time require less water and do not lead to erosion.

Only the combined efforts of wizards and prophets can survive the population explosion, preserve biomes and provide the planet's population with sufficient water, food and energy.

If you are interested in this topic, watch the video for the full TED talk.