“It’s not a lack of resources, but their distribution” - Sergey Kapitsa on the future of mankind

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

Scientist Sergei Kapitsa in his last article "The History of Ten Billions" answered the most important questions of demography. Find out why there are so many of us on the planet and when human growth will stop.

People have always been worried about how many and how many should be in order for everyone to live well. However, according to Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa, resources like food and water have always been enough for us and will be enough. The problem is that these resources are not always distributed fairly.

To solve the global problems of peace and balance, one must start with the central problem - population growth.

How many people should live on Earth?

There is a demographic theory: the more body weight, the fewer individuals. Therefore, there are few elephants, but many mice. According to this theory, there should be about 100 thousand people. However, growth did not stop at this mark: at first it was imperceptible, then explosive. And now there are already 7 billion of us.

Why has population growth continued?

The founder of demography, Thomas Malthus, put forward this assumption: humanity, like other species, is growing exponentially. Growth ends when the resources for this run out. That is, the more people there are on our planet, the more children they will give birth to and raise. However, growth will slow down when there is less food or water. The growth in the majority of animals is indeed exponential. But in humans it is different.

How are people different from animals?

The growth of humanity is hyperbolic: very slow at first and accelerating at the end. This is because our main resource is not food, but knowledge. We do not live alone: we reproduce, eat and, most importantly, share our knowledge. Humans, unlike animals, have progress.

Is there enough food for such a huge number of people?

Yes, there is enough food for everyone. Sergei Petrovich cites as an example the calculations that he carried out with his colleagues at the Club of Rome. Today, even one country, for example Argentina, can provide food for the rest of the world's population.

It’s not a lack of resources, but their distribution. Sergey Kapitsa

What's wrong with population growth?

The connection between generations is breaking up. Historical periods are getting shorter because history is measured not by astronomical time, but by generations. During each historical period, approximately 10 billion people lived. Now 10 billion live and die in just half a century. The historical period changes with each generation.

Nowadays it is fashionable to complain about the breaking of the connection between generations, about the dying of traditions - but, perhaps, this is a natural consequence of the acceleration of history. If each generation lives in its own era, the legacy of previous eras may simply not be useful to it. Sergey Kapitsa

How do global problems and wars affect population growth?

Almost nothing. Population growth is recovering steadily. For example, in medieval Europe, the plague killed two-thirds of the population. But 100 years later, growth recovered again. It was the same after the First and Second World Wars.

So growth will never stop?

Already stopping. According to the formula for demographic growth, by now there should be 10 billion of us. In 1995, the maximum growth rate of the Russian population was recorded, and then the growth practically stopped. Today, China's population growth is stabilizing. Even earlier, similar processes began in the most developed countries, for example, in Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

And what does it mean?

There will be no more rampant growth. The demographic transition has begun, which means that humanity will change. Progress will take place, but in a different way.

A physicist would call what is happening a phase transition: you put a pot of water on fire, and for a long time nothing happens, only lonely bubbles rise. And then suddenly everything boils. This is how humanity is: the accumulation of internal energy slowly proceeds, and then everything takes on a new form. Sergey Kapitsa

We live in a time of transition. This is dangerous?

Most likely, the demographic changes are the reasons for the financial and moral crisis, the disorder in life and the stress of the entire society as a whole. This is how we react to a new state. On the other hand, less developed countries are starting to catch up with developed ones. There is a redistribution of goods and wealth around the world.

How long will this transition last?

According to Kapitsa, statistics and a mathematical model indicate that the width of the transition is less than 100 years. But you need to keep in mind that in different countries it starts at different times. In the countries of Europe and in Russia it is practically over, in the Islamic countries it is just beginning.

And what will happen next?

Kapitsa believes that this transition will be more or less peaceful. But here there can be no ready-made recipes and 100% accurate predictions.

History is like the weather. There is no bad weather. We live under such and such circumstances, and we must accept and understand these circumstances. Sergey Kapitsa