When will the coronavirus pandemic end?

What it takes to end the coronavirus pandemic

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end, experts from McKinsey and Company, a reputable international company that specializes in strategic management, call When will the COVID-19 pandemic end two criteria that will allow us to say: we have overcome the pandemic.

1. Acquisition of herd immunity

Population immunity will occur Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19, when the number of people resistant to coronavirus becomes sufficient to stop the massive spread of the infection.

The "sufficient" number depends on the specific disease. For example, in the case of measles, herd immunity is achieved when 95% of the population acquires resistance to infection. In the case of poliomyelitis, this threshold is lower - 80%.

Scientists suggest COVID-19: Science in 5: Episode # 1 - Herd immunity that the spread of COVID-19 will stop when 60-70% of the population becomes immune to it.

At the same time, today in most countries, no more than 10% of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been ill with coronavirus: Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19 citizens. The good news is that the creation of herd immunity does not mean that all 60-70% should get sick with COVID-19. Other factors when will the COVID-19 pandemic end play a significant role in this process.

Introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine … This is the most significant factor. Once pharmacists manage to create a truly effective drug, the pandemic will subside.
Natural immunity to coronavirus … McKinsey and Company estimates that between 90 million and 300 million people worldwide may be naturally immune to coronavirus.
Potential cross-immunity to other coronaviruses … There is a version that the body of people who have recovered from other coronavirus infections is better protected from SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2.
Potential partial immunity that other vaccinations provide … In particular, we are talking about BCG, an anti-tuberculosis vaccine, which, as observations show, in some cases evens out Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19, the increase in the incidence of COVID-19.
National habits … For example, in countries where people are accustomed to keeping their distance from each other, the spread of COVID-19 can be stopped sooner than in those with closer contact.

2. Return to normal life

This means, first of all, a decrease in the number of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19. Following this, restaurants, schools, borders will reopen, business will return from online to reality, and in general life will become the same (almost).

When will the coronavirus pandemic end?

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end, McKinsey and Company predicts that the United States and other developed countries will be able to achieve herd immunity by the third or fourth quarter of 2021. And the return to normal life will begin even earlier - perhaps in the first half of the year.

But researchers interviewed by Nature remind The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 that herd immunity is not so simple - for several reasons. And this will affect the end date of the pandemic.

1. It is not known how stable the immune response is

Perhaps the acquired protection against coronavirus will last only for a year or even just a few months, and then a person can get sick again. This also applies to immunity acquired naturally - after an illness, and immunity developed after the vaccine (when it appears).

If vaccinations have to be repeated every 2-3 months, millions and even billions of doses will be needed. It is not a fact that the global pharmaceutical industry will quickly cope with such a challenge.

2. It is not clear how the coronavirus affects the body

It is not uncommon for the consequences of the transferred COVID-19 - shortness of breath, chest pain, chronic fatigue, "brain fog" (this is the name for the decrease in concentration, memory, performance characteristic of the disease) - haunt people for months NHS to offer 'long covid' sufferers help at specialist centers.

There is one more nuance: the closest relatives of SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2 - seasonal coronaviruses that cause the common cold, weaken The false promise of herd immunity for COVID ‑ 19 immunity for about a year.

It is highly likely that COVID-19 is doing exactly the same. And in this case, it becomes even more difficult to rely on the body's defenses and predict the timing of the onset of herd immunity.

3. Outbreaks of the disease will appear even with herd immunity

It is enough for people in a certain region to decide that the disease has receded and begin to refuse vaccinations. This will inevitably lead to a new wave of the spread of infection and, possibly, the need for more lockdowns.

4. There is a version that COVID-19 will never be able to take full control

Just as it was not possible to take control of the flu. This infection, despite many years of efforts by scientists and the pharmaceutical industry, still takes away up to 650 thousand Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project lives per year (and this figure does not include deaths caused by complications of influenza, and this is up to 250 thousand cases annually).

Researchers at Harvard have modeled the Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2 through the postpandemic period several possible options for the further development of COVID ‑ 19. And they came to the conclusion that the pandemic and associated social restrictions will last until at least 2022. And outbreaks of coronavirus infection are highly likely to occur every year or every two years, depending on the duration of the acquired immunity.

I think this virus is with us for a long time. But the flu has also been with us for a long time. And in his case, most often we do without lockdowns. So we can handle Coronavirus Will Never Go Away.

Ruth Karron MD, for The Atlantic

Fortunately, seasonal outbreaks never reach pandemic peaks - because many people's immune systems are still learning to fight off infection. This means that there is light at the end of the tunnel. You just need to reach out to him, if possible, without losses and serious consequences.