How fast would you run a marathon?

2024 Author: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 03:44

The online calculator Predicted Marathon Time will tell you how long it will take you 42 kilometers, regardless of gender, age, anthropometric data and training. The calculation is based on a deep theoretical basis.

In September 2014, Kenyan Dennis Kimetto ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:57. The record for women is held by British runner Paula Radcliffe, who hit London with 2:15:25 in 2003. Professional athletes soberly assess the greatness of these achievements, but amateurs are unlikely. The Predicted Marathon Time online calculator will help you feel the bar. He will calculate your potential result, after which you can evaluate the abyss between yourself and the best athletes on the planet.

How Predicted Marathon Time works

In 1981, American research engineer Peter Riegel presented a mathematical formula for predicting running time based on previous advances. The formula has become widespread due to its simplicity and sufficient accuracy.

T₂ = T₁ × (D₂ ÷ D₁)^{1, 06}

Formula variables denote:

• T₁- the time spent on passing the distance D₁;
• T₂- predicted time to cover distance D₂;
• D1 is the distance that the athlete previously covered in time T₁;
• D2 - the distance that the athlete plans to cover in the required time T₂.

A little later, Peter Riegel clarified that the formula applies to physical activity lasting from 3.5 to 230 minutes. However, it is suitable for running, swimming and walking.

Decades have passed, and the author's opinion was shared by specialized Internet resources. They pointed out that the power of 1, 06 gives unattainable predictions for large distances. Andrew Vickers, a renowned cancer researcher, graduate of Cambridge and Oxford Universities, and an avid runner, took on the adjustment of the formula.

Andrew Vickers asked his subscribers to fill out a short questionnaire about the time of the last race and other related information. 2,497 respondents responded to the request, thanks to which the scientist and his colleague Emily Vertosick (Emily Vertosick) improved the formula in 2014.

The comparison showed that Peter Riegel's version is excellent for distances up to half marathon, but in half of the cases it fails for 10 minutes at longer distances. Of course, this is a big problem for professional runners who meticulously plan the pace of the race. A mistake can lead to depletion long before the finishing tape.

Peter Riegel's formula was modeled on the world record of the time, so the thought was that it should not be applied to non-professionals. Moreover, amateurs differ significantly from each other in their endurance. For example, one person can do 5K at 5:20 per kilometer, and 10K at 5:30 per kilometer. The second runner, due to his natural abilities, can lose more and show a 5:40 pace in the top ten. This factor severely limits the accuracy of generic algorithms.

It is clear that Andrew Vickers' formula also had problems in this regard: the sample of respondents was not random. Nevertheless, the researchers did not plan to retreat and again finalized the formula. They repeated the survey and added additional parameters to it. For example, runners rated their form on a scale of ten.

After that, the questionnaires were divided into two packs: on the basis of one, the formula was refined, and on the basis of the second, its performance was checked. The accuracy turned out to be high.

In parallel, Andrew Vickers highlighted a couple of curious facts:

• Runners who do interval training are 3% faster than those who neglect them.
• At 5K, women run 20% slower than men; for a marathon, this difference is already 10%. By the way, among elite runners the spread varies from 10 to 12.5% at all distances.

Finally, after knocking out all the facts, Andrew Vickers and Emily Vertozik came to the conclusion that the average weekly mileage and the time of the previous race are the most accurate indicators when calculating the length of the marathon. The latest version of the formula is based on them.

How to Count With Predicted Marathon Time

Go to the online Predicted Marathon Time calculator and enter a couple of values: the number of miles you run per week, the length of the last long run, its nature and time. The algorithm will immediately display the predicted result in the marathon, as well as indicate the error. Enter the details for one more workout so the site will adjust the total time.

In conclusion, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that the formula is more intended for those who diligently prepare for a marathon and run the appropriate distances. But no one bothers to dream and those who master the "half" only in a dream. Perhaps, looking into the abyss, you want to become a little faster and more enduring.

Predicted Marathon Time →