What is Technology Singularity

A technological singularity is a theoretical moment when a person loses control over technological progress, and that, in turn, becomes irreversible. In simple terms, in the near future, technologies may develop so much that humanity will simply cease to keep up with them and understand them.

The creation of artificial superintelligence as a way to achieve the singularity is considered most often, but this is not the only possible way. For example, in the near future, machines (computers, robots) are likely to appear that will be able to do everything better than humans, and because of this, there will be a sharp, avalanche-like technological leap.

However, most often such guesses were built by Tegmark M. Life 3.0. Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. - M., 2019 not on scientific forecasts, but on myths in the field of AI.

Further, as supporters of the concept of technological singularity believe, such "intellectual explosions" will occur more and more often. This can lead to radical changes in society that we can neither predict nor control.

It is the consequences of the singularity that cause many fears and serve as the basis for discussions about the future of humanity. These consequences are assessed in different ways. Raymond Kurzweil, a speech recognition futurist and a key figure at Google, believes that advances in technology are a great opportunity for people to become better people. Less optimistic in their assessments are Elon Musk, Bill Gates and the late Stephen Hawking. In their opinion, progress can lead to the destruction of humanity.

What are the prerequisites for a technological singularity

Concerns about the consequences of technological progress did not appear out of nowhere. Many processes in modern society and science are prompting such reflections.

Accelerating technical and technological progress

The digital age began with the invention of the transistor in 1947 and continues to this day. Back in 1965, one of the founders of Intel, preparing to speak, discovered an interesting pattern: every two years the number of transistors in microcircuits doubles.

Since then, little has changed: computer computing is showing constant exponential growth. The further technology advances, the steeper the curve that illustrates technological progress becomes. Within a few decades, its pace can go to infinity.

According to Harvey C. Big Data Challenges. Datamation by Datamation, back in 2017, digital data exceeded our ability to manage it. Moreover, it doubles every two years.

One of the next steps in the development of technology, probably, can be the invention of AGI (artificial general intelligence). This term refers to an AI that learns to communicate, think and act like a human or even better. That is, AGI, in theory, can replace people in everything.

Development of artificial intelligence

So far, computers cannot do absolutely everything better than us, although in solving many problems they are already much smarter than a person (or at least faster than him).

4-5 years ago, Ray Kurzweil's forecast of singularity will happen by 2045. Raymond Kurzweil's futurism that by 2045 artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence in everything was considered very bold (despite the fact that since the 90s, 86% of his assumptions have come true).

Today, the period between 2025 and 2035, or even earlier, is already called as a hypothetical date for the appearance of AGI.

Technological singularity: the development of artificial intelligence

Pandaya J. The Troubling Trajectory Of Technological Singularity can play a special role in this. Forbes will play building neuromorphic chips - processors for neural networks that replicate how our brains process information. So far, research in this area is still far from obtaining a really working model, but there are already undoubted successes. Here's what AI can do today:

learn;
beat people in strategic games (the AlphaGo program in 2015, in just 9 hours of training, gained DeepMind and Google: the battle to control artificial intelligence. The Economist the ability to play chess better than a human);
Help Brain-Controlled Exoskeleton Enables Paralyzed Patient to Walk. The Scientist people with spinal cord injuries get back on their feet;
recognize faces;
to drive a car;
to paint Is artificial intelligence set to become art's next medium? CHRISTIE'S and related texts;
create Artificial intelligence system created at UNC ‑ Chapel Hill designs drugs from scratch. UNC ‑ CHAPEL HILL medicines;
lead China's state-run Xinhua News Agency debuts 'AI anchor' to read the news. Mashable news coverage and much more.

In 2014, Google acquired DeepMind and Google: the battle to control artificial intelligence for $ 600 million. The Economist by AlphaGo is a British company DeepMind whose goal was to invent AGI. The ideas of the British helped Google create effective algorithms for the diagnosis of eye diseases and the early detection of Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases.

Most likely, it is worth waiting for the emergence of AGI in the foreseeable future. However, the onset of the technological singularity is not directly related to this.

The emergence of neural interfaces

Already, we can talk about the Internet as a form of a "global brain" - a phenomenon thanks to which people from all over the world can communicate with each other almost continuously through a technical intermediary.

There are devices that are closer to the gadgets from science fiction films. Already over 300 thousand people use How close are we to Elon Musk's brain-computer interface? CNN Health cochlear implants (hearing prostheses that act directly on the auditory nerve), and samples of bionic eyes are being tested in humans. Although these devices are still not able to restore vision or hearing completely, the quality of their work is improving.

Also Elon Musk and Brian Johnson announced How close are we to Elon Musk's brain-computer interface? CNN Health on the creation of startups for the development of human-computer interfaces (Neuralink and Kernel). Of course, it's too early to say that soon we will be able to control a smartphone with the power of thought: all such devices are still too slow and imperfect. Nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that success in this industry is just around the corner.

What are the reasons for technical progress?

AI and robots will take on complex intellectual and physical work

The development of artificial intelligence and robotics may ultimately lead to the fact that machines will learn to do everything without or with minimal human intervention. In this case, progress will continue to accelerate, more and more improving the life and life of people.

Already, computers are used by humans for scientific research and technology improvement. Thanks to this (for example, genetic research or the development of devices that improve the capabilities of the human brain), people themselves become smarter, and machines - faster. Thus, the development of not only computers, but also of a person is accelerated.

People will discover new abilities in themselves

The fusion of a person with technology occurs not only on the physical (the use of prostheses, modifications), but also on the informational level (the use of gadgets). A smartphone with mobile internet in your pocket is the first step towards becoming a cyborg.

Technological Singularity: Fusion of Man with Technology

There is even a Transhumanism movement. Britannica, an advocate for the active improvement of the human body through technological advances. Transhumanists believe that body modification is the only way to keep up with the times and not put the fate of humanity at the disposal of machines.

However, so far the emergence of human biorobots is still in the realm of fantasy.

New technologies open the way to potential immortality

Removing the limitations of DNA appears to be a much more elegant solution in this area. Genetic and Bioengineering Pandaya J. The Troubling Trajectory Of Technological Singularity. Forbes, as well as nootropics, can make people smarter. With the help of artificially grown organs or nanomachines, people can get rid of aging and achieve immortality.

The only questions are how quickly a person will learn (and will learn) to use these opportunities, whether society and government will approve of them. It will take years for genetically modified humans to be born and educated, even if the social factors that slow the adoption of such technology are ignored. Other forms of superintelligence (AI) can appear much faster.

What the opponents of uncontrolled technology development say

Artificial intelligence can destroy humanity

The development of AGI is likely to outpace the development of the human brain and technology to empower us. Artificial intelligence is capable of surpassing the human one and in a pessimistic scenario can easily get out of control.

Oxford University Doctor Nick Bostrom considers Bostrom N. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. - Oxford University Press, 2014 that there is cause for concern. In his opinion, no matter how developed the intellect may be, this does not affect whether the actions of its owner will be evil or good. Therefore, no matter how smart the AI is, we are not immune from the fact that it will do something bad.

Important Tegmark M. Life 3.0. Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. - M., 2019, so that AGI can understand, accept the goals of humanity and adhere to them. If he sets other priorities for himself, such as self-preservation, grabbing resources or satisfying curiosity, then conflicts will arise in the relationship between people and machines.

Modernization of the human body can lead to further stratification of society

Modification of the human body can not only create "Human 2.0", but also exacerbate social conflicts. Those who have access to such technologies will obviously have superiority over those who do not have these capabilities.

Significant ethical and legal issues arise: is it possible to give one person an intellectual and / or physical advantage over another and how to protect “biomechanical people” from hackers.

Once in the wrong hands, technology can be a deadly weapon

Do not forget that a person in himself is a great danger. The military is already using drones and programmable machines as weapons, and social media is awash with crooks. It is highly likely that people will begin to abuse new technologies as well.

But even before that, we simply risk not surviving, since even existing weapons are dangerous. Max Tegmark, an astrophysicist and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated Tegmark M. Life 3.0 using statistical probability formulas. Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. - M., 2019 the risk of a world nuclear war leading to mutual destruction. He concluded that if the probability is 0.001 in one year, then in the interval of 10,000 years nuclear collapse will occur with a probability of 99.95%. Even a well-established containment system for well-researched weapons can fail. And the question arises: can we control more complex technologies so that they do not fall into the wrong hands?

What future can await us

At the same time, Max Tegmark critically evaluates Tegmark M. Life 3.0. Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. - M., 2019 the probability of a pessimistic scenario. He believes that the possibilities for self-improvement are limited by physical laws. True singularity, as an infinitely accelerating progress, according to Tegmark, is impossible, although this process is capable of approaching infinity.

Therefore, the professor argues that the leap in technology will be followed by the rapid achievement of all or almost all the completeness of knowledge about the world, and not their endless accumulation.

According to another point of view, nothing, including progress, can accelerate indefinitely - sooner or later it will slow down.

However, we can reliably say that humanity has not yet passed the deceleration point.

Not all scientists generally share the theory of technological singularity. Some people note that up to now no phenomena have been found in nature that develop indefinitely and infinitely quickly. At the same time, researchers draw attention to the fact that a considerable number of forecasts in this area are based not on objective data, but on the desires of the predictors themselves.

So, for example, AI can remain purely utilitarian and not endowed with personality. Algorithms of the same DeepMind cannot yet DeepMind and Google: the battle to control artificial intelligence. The Economist find a solution if something goes wrong and the predefined conditions change.

So far, AI is overtaking us only at the expense of computing power. But what people can master in a few minutes, the program spends thousands of hours, when compared with human experience.

For example, for AlphaGo to learn how to play Space Invaders, it has to make thousands of tries. Ultimately, the program, of course, will play better than a person, but he will master the process much faster.

Therefore, none of the forecasts can be considered 100% probable. But this is not a reason to completely abandon the idea of a technological singularity.

To a large extent, the implementation of certain scenarios of the fate of mankind will depend on the direction of technological development, on whose hands it will be and how it will be regulated. Also, how sophisticated the technology becomes will play a big role. Do not forget about social, geopolitical and economic factors that can influence progress. It is also difficult to talk about the exact dates of the onset of the technological singularity.

Will a person continue to exist if he is not needed for many types of activity (for example, science)? Will a person changed by DNA-interventions or neurointerfaces remain a person? We have no answers to these questions. Perhaps a person has already irreversibly changed with the advent of computers and digital technologies.

But one thing is absolutely certain: the evolutionary process is natural and unstoppable. We cannot slow him down. In the end, perhaps the machines will teach us not to kill or humiliate each other and we should trust them?

Therefore, as Tegmark M. advises. Life 3.0. Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. - M., 2019 Max Tegmark, think not about the future that scares you, but about the one you would like.

What is Technology Singularity

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